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Basics Beginner 12 min read

How Sports Betting
Odds Actually Work

Every bet you place has a price. That price is expressed as odds. Odds tell you three things simultaneously: how much you win, how likely the book thinks the outcome is, and how much of your money the book keeps regardless of the result. Most Canadian bettors know how to read odds. Very few know how to use them to identify value. This guide covers all three formats, the maths behind implied probability, what vig actually costs you over a season, and the one number that separates winning bettors from losing ones.

The insight that changes how you bet: odds are not just payouts. They contain a built-in book margin on every single bet. At -110/-110, you are paying 4.55% vig. At -104/-104, you pay 1.92%. The difference compounds over hundreds of bets into hundreds of dollars. The math is not complicated. The habit of checking it is what most bettors never develop.
Guide at a Glance 7 sections
52.38% Win rate needed to break even at -110
4.55% Book margin on standard -110/-110 line
1.92% Book margin at Pinnacle -104/-104
$284 Vig saved per 100 bets: -104 vs -110
3 Odds formats used globally: American, Decimal, Fractional
Start the guide

The Three Odds Formats: American, Decimal, and Fractional

Every sportsbook displays odds in at least one of three formats. Ontario books default to American odds but most allow you to switch. Understanding all three lets you compare lines across platforms quickly.

American
-110
+150

Negative numbers show how much you risk to win $100. Positive numbers show how much you win on a $100 stake. Standard at all Ontario books. The most common format in North America.

Negative: risk $110, win $100
Positive: risk $100, win $150
Decimal
1.91
2.50

Your total return per $1 staked, including your stake. Decimal 1.91 equals American -110. Common in Europe and on Pinnacle. Easiest format for quick expected value calculations.

Formula: stake x decimal odds = total return
$100 x 1.91 = $191 total ($91 profit)
Fractional
10/11
3/2

Shows profit relative to stake. 10/11 means win $10 for every $11 risked. Common in UK markets. Less intuitive for North American bettors but you will encounter it on horse racing boards.

Formula: (numerator / denominator) x stake = profit
(3/2) x $100 = $150 profit
AmericanDecimalFractionalImplied probabilityCommon context
-1101.90910/1152.38%Standard spread/total
-1041.96225/2650.97%Pinnacle totals
-1451.69020/2959.18%Moderate favourite ML
+1252.2505/444.44%Moderate underdog ML
+2003.0002/133.33%Heavy underdog
-2001.5001/266.67%Heavy favourite

Implied Probability: The Number Inside Every Odd

Every set of odds contains an implied probability. This is the win percentage the book is pricing in for that outcome. Being able to calculate it instantly is the single most important mathematical skill in sports betting.

Negative American odds (favourite)
|odds| / (|odds| + 100) = implied probability
-145 145 / (145 + 100) = 59.18%
Positive American odds (underdog)
100 / (odds + 100) = implied probability
+125 100 / (125 + 100) = 44.44%
Decimal odds (any)
1 / decimal odds = implied probability
1.909 1 / 1.909 = 52.38%
-110
52.38%
Standard spread side
-145
59.18%
Moderate favourite
+150
40.00%
Clear underdog
-200
66.67%
Heavy favourite
+200
33.33%
Long shot
-104
50.97%
Pinnacle standard
Why implied probabilities always sum to more than 100%: on a standard -110/-110 line, each side has 52.38% implied probability. That adds to 104.76%, not 100%. The extra 4.76% is the book's margin, taken from both sides simultaneously. You are never betting against the actual probability. You are always betting against the odds plus the margin.

Vig (Juice): What the Book Takes on Every Bet

Vig is the book's built-in commission. It is why the house always has a mathematical advantage regardless of which side wins. Understanding exactly how it works is non-negotiable for serious bettors.

Scenario: two bettors, one book
Bettor A bets $110 on Team A at -110
Bettor B bets $110 on Team B at -110
Book collects $220 total
Pays winner $210 ($110 stake + $100 win)
Book keeps $10 profit regardless of result
Vig rates by odds
-104/-104
1.92%
-108/-108
3.70%
-110/-110
4.55%
-115/-115
6.52%
-120/-120
9.09%

Value Betting: When Odds Are Wrong

A value bet is any bet where your assessed probability of the outcome is higher than the book's implied probability. This is the entire intellectual foundation of profitable sports betting.

The Value Betting Framework in Three Steps

Step 1: Convert the odds to implied probability using the formulas above. Step 2: Form your own estimate of the true probability of the outcome. Step 3: If your estimate is meaningfully higher than the implied probability, you have a value bet. The book is underpricing the outcome relative to what you believe the true odds are. This is the only mathematically sound reason to place any bet.

Value bet

Book offers +150 on Team A. Your model says Team A wins 45% of the time.

+150 implies 40.0%. Your 45% > 40.0%.
Positive expected value. Place the bet.
No value

Book offers -145 on Team B. You think Team B wins 58% of the time.

-145 implies 59.2%. Your 58% < 59.2%.
Negative expected value. The book has priced this correctly against you.
Marginal

Book offers -110 on Team C. You think Team C wins 53% of the time.

-110 implies 52.38%. Your 53% > 52.38% by only 0.62%.
Barely positive EV. Factor in vig at other books - may be better elsewhere.

Line Shopping: Getting the Best Price on Every Bet

Different Ontario books post different odds on the same game. Shopping for the best number is the lowest-effort, highest-return habit any bettor can develop. It requires no handicapping ability whatsoever.

Same game, same side - different prices across Ontario books
Pinnacle -104 $96.15 profit per $100 risked Best price
bet365 -106 $94.34 profit per $100 risked
Sports Interaction -108 $92.59 profit per $100 risked
DraftKings -110 $90.91 profit per $100 risked
FanDuel -110 $90.91 profit per $100 risked
BetMGM -115 $86.96 profit per $100 risked
Difference between best (-104) and worst (-115): $9.19 per $100 risked - same bet, same game

Payout Maths You Should Know Cold

These are the numbers every experienced bettor has memorised. You should not need to calculate these mid-session.

-110
Risk$110
Profit$100
Return$210
Implied52.38%
Every standard spread and total
-115
Risk$115
Profit$100
Return$215
Implied53.49%
Boosted markets, some moneylines
-120
Risk$120
Profit$100
Return$220
Implied54.55%
Slight favourite spread with key number buy
-145
Risk$145
Profit$100
Return$245
Implied59.18%
Moderate favourite moneyline
-200
Risk$200
Profit$100
Return$300
Implied66.67%
Heavy favourite - rarely good value
+100
Risk$100
Profit$100
Return$200
Implied50.00%
Even odds - rare to see at a book
+110
Risk$100
Profit$110
Return$210
Implied47.62%
Slight underdog spread or total
+150
Risk$100
Profit$150
Return$250
Implied40.00%
Clear underdog moneyline
+200
Risk$100
Profit$200
Return$300
Implied33.33%
Long shot - parlay-adjacent pricing

Six Odds Mistakes Canadian Bettors Make Constantly

01
Thinking bigger odds means a better bet

Higher odds just mean lower implied probability. +400 is not a "better" bet than -110. Whether either bet is good depends entirely on whether the true probability exceeds the implied probability. A -200 favourite can be a great value bet. A +400 underdog can be terrible value. The odds themselves tell you nothing about value.

02
Ignoring the vig when comparing books

When Book A offers -110 and Book B offers -104 on the same side of the same game, most bettors do not notice. They bet at whichever book they opened first. The -104 at Pinnacle requires a 50.97% win rate to break even. The -110 requires 52.38%. Over 200 bets that 1.41% difference compounds into a substantial bankroll difference.

03
Converting implied probability into a bet without a true probability estimate

Knowing that -145 implies 59.18% tells you nothing about whether to bet without an independent estimate of the true probability. Bettors who skip this step and simply bet because odds "look good" are gambling, not betting. The only valid reason to bet is a genuine belief that true probability exceeds implied probability.

04
Treating half-point differences as trivial

In NFL betting, the difference between -2.5 and -3 is not 0.5 points. It is the most common winning margin in the sport. Half-point differences around key numbers (3, 7 in NFL; 1 goal in NHL) are worth significant expected value. Never treat half points as cosmetic.

05
Not converting between formats before comparing

A bettor comparing American -110 at one book with decimal 1.87 at another without converting is operating blind. These are different prices: -110 = decimal 1.909. The 1.87 book is actually offering worse odds. Always convert to the same format before comparing lines across platforms.

06
Assuming the favourite is always the smart bet

The public consistently over-bets favourites. Books shade favourite lines to account for this. The result is that underdogs are systematically underpriced in markets with high recreational volume. Heavy public favourite lines are frequently poor value. The favourite is not smart money by definition - it is often the most expensively priced side on the board.

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