What Is Betting Hold Rate and Why Does It Matter
Hold rate, sometimes called margin, vig, or juice, is the percentage of total wagers that a sportsbook retains as profit after paying out winners. If $1,000,000 is wagered in a month and the book pays out $960,000 to winning bettors, the hold is $40,000 and the hold rate is 4.0%.
The iGO market report data captures this at a market-wide level every quarter. Because it covers every licensed operator simultaneously, it shows the average hold across all books, all bet types, and all sports in Ontario. This is the most complete picture of Ontario sportsbook margin that exists publicly.
Example: $401.5M GGR / $9,520M wagers = 4.22% hold (January 2026)
The distinction between hold rate and vig is important but related. Vig is the margin built into individual odds at the point of pricing. Hold rate is the actual result after bets settle. Because some bettors win more than average in a month, hold can be lower than the implied vig would suggest. Because parlays and props carry higher margins, hold can be higher. The iGO figure reflects actual outcomes, not theoretical pricing.
For a deeper explanation of how vig works at the individual bet level, see the how odds work guide.
Ontario Hold Rate: What the iGO Data Shows
The iGO dataset covers 24 months of data. The market-wide hold rate has ranged from 3.45% (2024-12) to 4.22% (2026-01), with an average of 3.98%.
Several patterns emerge from the data. Hold rate is lowest in months with major upset-heavy sports results, when underdogs beat the spread across multiple games. December 2024 at 3.45% is the clearest example: an unusually volatile NFL week 15-16 where chalk teams lost at an atypical rate compressed hold across the market. Because every Ontario licensed book was affected simultaneously, the iGO aggregate captured the shock cleanly.
Hold rate is highest in quieter sports months where parlays and props dominate activity and variance is lower. The early launch months of 2022 showed relatively high hold because the market was newer and recreational parlay players were a larger proportion of bettors. As sharp money entered the market and bettor sophistication grew, average hold drifted slightly lower.
How Individual Books Compare on Vig
The iGO aggregate hold rate of ~4% represents the blended average of dozens of books with very different pricing strategies. Individual books sit at dramatically different points on the vig spectrum.
| Book type | Standard NFL point spread | Implied vig | Suitable for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp books (Pinnacle) | -104 / -104 | ~1.9% | High-volume, value-focused bettors |
| Reduced juice books | -105 / -105 | ~2.4% | Semi-sharp, volume bettors |
| Standard recreational books | -110 / -110 | ~4.5% | Casual bettors, bonus hunters |
| Parlay-heavy books | -110 / -110 + high parlay margins | 6-8%+ effective | Casual, promo-focused bettors |
The gap between a sharp book at -104 and a recreational book at -110 is 1.5 percentage points of vig per bet. Over 1,000 bets at $100 each, that difference compounds to roughly $750 in additional cost at the recreational book. Over a full year of regular betting, this matters significantly.
This is why bankroll management and book selection are inseparable. The bettors who survive long enough to express any edge are the ones who minimise the structural friction that vig creates. The EV calculator at the EV calculator lets you quantify the break-even win rate at any vig level.
Why Ontario's Hold Rate Fluctuates Month to Month
The iGO hold rate is not controlled by any single operator. It is an outcome of millions of independent betting decisions and game results across the whole market. Several factors drive its fluctuation.
Result variance
In any given month, favourite teams either win or lose at rates close to, above, or below their historical average. When favourites outperform expectations and cover spreads at high rates, books retain more. When upsets run through the market, books retain less. This is the primary driver of month-to-month hold variation and is structurally unpredictable.
Bet mix shift
During NFL playoffs and major tournaments, parlay activity increases because casual bettors drawn in by high-profile events tend to bet parlays. Parlays carry higher house margins than single-game bets. A month where parlay volume is elevated will typically show higher hold even if individual game results are average. This is why January, despite being an upset-heavy NFL playoff month sometimes, often shows strong hold numbers.
Player mix
As Ontario's market matures, the bettor base has shifted. Sharp, high-volume bettors now represent a larger share of total wagering than they did at launch. Sharp bettors win at higher rates and on lower margins, which exerts structural downward pressure on aggregate hold. The trend from 2022 to 2026 is a gradual mix shift toward more sophisticated bettors, consistent with a market moving from acquisition phase to retention phase.
The casino vs sports betting breakdown explains why casino hold is far more stable than sports betting hold over the same period, and how that stability affects operator revenue predictability.