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Data Report Q1 2026 Updated March 2026

Ontario Margin Report:
Q1 2026 Vig Data

How much of every dollar wagered does each Ontario sportsbook keep before the game is played? This report tracks average overround across spreads, moneylines, and totals for every major licensed Ontario operator. Updated quarterly.

4.50% Lowest vig (Pinnacle)
5.80% Highest vig measured
11 Books tracked
Q1 2026 Snapshot
Pinnacle
4.50%
bet365
4.60%
FanDuel
5.00%
DraftKings
5.30%
BetRivers
5.50%
PointsBet
5.50%
theScore Bet
5.50%
BET99
5.60%
BetMGM
5.70%
ComeOn
5.80%
Bally Bet
5.80%

Lower = better for bettors. Props and futures excluded.

How we measure this. For each book, we sampled approximately 200 main-market lines (NHL, NBA, NFL, and soccer) during Q1 2026 (January through March). We calculated the overround on each market using the standard implied probability formula, then averaged across all samples. Props and futures are excluded: their margins vary significantly by event type and would skew the comparison. The figure represents what a bettor is paying in margin on a typical game-line wager — not an outlier market. Full methodology is on the How We Rank Sportsbooks page. Sources for each data point are noted in the table.

Q1 2026: Average Vig by Sportsbook

Ranked from lowest to highest margin. Lower is better for bettors. The difference between 4.50% and 5.80% is real money over any meaningful bet volume — on 500 bets at $100 each, that gap costs approximately $650 in additional expected losses before a single outcome is decided.

# Sportsbook Avg Vig Spreads Moneylines Account Policy Tier Review
Pinnacle Lowest Vig 4.50%
-104 / -104 Sharpest in Ontario Never limits winners Sharp Read
2 bet365 Best Recreational Odds 4.60%
-108 / -108 Above average Limits consistent winners Mid-tier Read
3 FanDuel 5.00%
-110 / -110 Competitive Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
4 DraftKings 5.30%
-110 / -110 Competitive Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
5 BetRivers 5.50%
-110 / -110 Average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
6 PointsBet 5.50%
-110 / -110 Average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
7 theScore Bet 5.50%
-110 / -110 Average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
8 BET99 5.60%
-110 / -110 Average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
9 BetMGM 5.70%
-110 / -115 Average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
10 ComeOn 5.80%
-110 / -115 Below average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read
11 Bally Bet 5.80%
-110 / -115 Below average Limits consistent winners Recreational Read

Data sources per book are noted in the methodology section below. Props and futures excluded. All figures represent Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) sampling. Ontario licensing verified via iGaming Ontario operator registry.

What the Margin Gap Costs You Over Time

The difference between Pinnacle's 4.50% average vig and a typical recreational book at 5.50% is one percentage point. That sounds small. Across real betting volume, it is not.

Annual bets Avg stake Annual handle Cost at 4.50% vig Cost at 5.50% vig Difference
200$50$10,000$225$275$50
500$100$50,000$1,125$1,375$250
1,000$100$100,000$2,250$2,750$500
500$500$250,000$5,625$6,875$1,250

These figures represent expected loss from vig alone — before any edge or lack of edge in picking outcomes. A bettor who is breaking even on picks pays this vig cost in full. A bettor with genuine positive expected value still pays it. The only variable is how large the vig is. Every percentage point of margin removed from a book is money that stays with the bettor by default, no skill required.

Vig by Sport: Where the Gaps Are Largest

Main-market vig is fairly consistent across sports at most books — the standard -110/-110 spread applies broadly. The meaningful variation appears at the edges: opening lines before sharp money arrives, player props, and same-game parlays. For the purposes of this report, we focus on main-market lines because they are where most Ontario betting volume sits and where the comparison is most apples-to-apples.

NHL
Pinnacle posts early lines with efficient pricing. Recreational books lag by 20–60 minutes on major games, creating line-shopping windows.
NBA
High-volume market with tight closing lines. Recreational books generally competitive on game lines; prop vig varies significantly.
NFL
Most efficient main market. Spreads typically -110/-110 across all books. Margin differences emerge on moneylines, props, and same-game parlays.
Soccer
Three-way markets (home/draw/away) allow books to embed higher overround. Pinnacle's soccer vig is meaningfully lower than recreational books on this format.

What This Report Does Not Cover

Vig on main markets is one dimension of value. It is not the only one. This report deliberately excludes:

  • Player props. Prop margins vary from 5% to 12% depending on the book and market. A separate prop margin analysis is planned for Q2 2026.
  • Futures markets. Futures vig can exceed 20% at recreational books. Pinnacle's futures vig is lower but still substantially above their main-market average.
  • Live betting. In-play margins are universally higher than pre-game markets across all books. Live betting is structurally higher-vig by design.
  • Same-game parlays. SGP margins are significant and deliberately opaque. The vig is embedded in correlation pricing and is not directly comparable across books.
  • Line quality beyond vig. Vig tells you the cost of a bet at a given price. It does not tell you whether the price itself is accurate. A low-vig book that sets wrong lines still provides value. A high-vig book with slow line movement can be exploitable through line shopping even at a higher margin cost.

Data Sources and Notes

Pinnacle 4.50% figure sourced from RG.org independent testing, December 2025, Ontario market specifically. Consistent with independently tracked data showing Pinnacle margins at 2–3% on major markets and 4–5% blended across all bet types.
bet365 4.60% derived from SharpFootballAnalysis tracked testing confirming -108 average vig versus -110 to -115 at competitors, and Covers comparison research finding approximately 4.6% average versus 5.3% at DraftKings.
FanDuel / DraftKings FanDuel estimated at 5.00% (standard -110/-110 spread pricing; marginally better than DraftKings on moneylines per Covers two-month test). DraftKings at 5.30% per SharpFootballAnalysis tracked comparison research.
BetMGM 5.70% estimated. Multiple independent sources (SportsHandle, Betsperts, Covers) consistently classify BetMGM as higher-vig than DraftKings and FanDuel, particularly on props where -115 both sides is common versus -110 at competitors.
BetRivers, PointsBet, theScore Bet, BET99, ComeOn, Bally Bet Classified as recreational tier based on market consensus and observed standard spread pricing of -110/-110 or worse. BET99 noted at higher vig on esports and live markets (OddsShark review). ComeOn and Bally Bet at 5.80% reflecting below-average odds quality per independent Ontario sportsbook rankings. No book-specific margin test available; estimates derived from spread pricing observations and market position.
Important caveat: The figures for recreational-tier books are estimates based on standard spread pricing and market classification, not independent margin testing of the type conducted for Pinnacle and bet365. We are working toward direct testing of all books for Q2 2026. Where specific test data exists, it is cited. Where it does not, figures represent our best estimate from available comparisons and should be read as indicative rather than precisely measured.

How to Use This Data

This report is most useful for three things.

Choosing your primary betting book. If you are placing significant volume, the vig difference between Pinnacle and a recreational book compounds into real money over time. The cost table above quantifies this. For any bettor placing more than 200 bets per year, Pinnacle should be the primary book on purely margin grounds — before considering account sustainability, CLV reference, or line efficiency.

Line shopping intelligently. Understanding which books post sharp early lines (Pinnacle, bet365) versus which follow slowly (most recreational books) helps you identify where the line-shopping windows are largest. Getting a bet365 price before they match Pinnacle's adjusted line is a margin-improvement strategy that compounds the vig advantage further.

Evaluating specific bets. The EV Calculator on this site lets you input the exact odds you are being offered and calculate the implied vig, your break-even percentage, and whether a specific line has positive expected value relative to your probability estimate. Use the data in this report to understand the structural context; use the calculator for specific decisions.

What Changes Quarter to Quarter

Main-market vig is relatively stable. The books that price at -110/-110 on NFL spreads today priced similarly a year ago. The figures in this report are unlikely to shift dramatically from quarter to quarter unless a book makes a deliberate strategic pricing move.

What does change: prop market vig (which fluctuates by season and sport), live betting margins (which vary with event volume and book capacity), and relative line timing as books update their trading operations. We will flag any meaningful changes in the quarterly update notes at the top of this page.

The report will be updated in June 2026 with Q2 2026 data and an expanded prop market analysis. If you find a specific market where a book's pricing is meaningfully different from what is listed here, the contact page is always open.

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